Many economic indicators show the economy may have hit bottom during the summer. Most analysts seem to agree.

However, history shows that bottoms can be long and rocky, as I expect this one will be. Once at the bottom, we usually see spikes that look like a recovery and then things drop back off and the bad news starts again. We are seeing that in the economy and in our industry.

I predict some pickup in freight and rates in this fourth quarter, but the real upward climb will not begin until the second quarter of 2010. For you, that means it will get harder to survive before it gets easier. Here’s why.

Only 480 fleets filed bankruptcy in the first quarter of 2009. That is low, given the environment. We are currently sitting at about 76 percent capacity of truck utilization, near record low levels. It’s so abnormal that the term “zombie truckers” has been coined to describe fleets that can’t make their equipment payments and are being kept afloat by lenders who don’t want the equipment back.

So whenever freight volumes pick up, there will be more than enough equipment to move it. The worst part is that rates will lag far behind as fleets put their excess capacity back to work. As volume increases, fuel prices will rise further.

There are the three keys to surviving this transition:

1) Cut costs.