Overdrive Extra

Max Heine

Trucking experts expect very slow rebound

| October 09, 2009

“The economy has bottomed out, but it is going to be slow going in the months ahead.” That was the consensus of speakers at this week’s annual management conference of the American Trucking Associations, in Las Vegas, says ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello in his weekly newsletter.

One of those speakers, Sara Johnson of HIS Global Insight, predicts a contraction of  2.5 percent this year, followed by an increase of 2.0 percent in 2010 and then a normal 3.0 level in 2011.

Costello told the conference of a record reduction in freight volumes over the last year. “Unfortunately, the historical reduction in volumes was surpassed by an even larger drop in revenues,” he writes. “Still, most sectors in trucking appear to have bottomed out.”

He also cited “a record reduction in capacity,” which should end up as good news for owner-operators (and fleets) who can hold out until demand for their services returns: “While this reduction has been masked by an even larger drop in demand for trucking services, it means that volumes don’t have to return to pre-recession levels before capacity tightens significantly.”

And in a separate report, some other positive news. Class 8 orders for major North American truck makers totaled 10,817 units in September, the fourth consecutive month that orders have shown a month-over-month increase, according to preliminary data from FTR Associates, a consulting firm. Year-to-date orders through September are 5.2 percent ahead of the same period in 2008, reflecting the first year-over-year increase since June 2008.

 – Max Heine

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