Used truck prices down more than 20% in 2016

| December 21, 2016

Depreciation of used commercial trucks has accelerated in the second half of 2016 according to J.D. Power and Associates.

truck lot

The used truck market is expected to see a flood of inventory in the coming years, which will likely continue to depress used truck pricing.

The average sleeper tractor retailed in October was 72 months old, had 463,378 miles and brought $49,661.

Since January, 3-to 5-year-old sleepers have lost about $14,500 (21 percent) of their retail value, which J.D. Power analyst Chris Visser says translates to just over 2 percent depreciation per month.

“In terms of individual model years, 3-year-old trucks have lost about 19 percent of their value since January, 4-year-old trucks have lost about 19 percent, and 5-year-old trucks have lost about 24 percent,” he adds.

Retail depreciation is still 1 to 2 percentage points better than expectations, but Visser says based on returning supply, there will be more downward pressure on pricing than upward over the long term.

Since the turn of the year, model year 2013 trucks have lost about 22 percent of their value on the wholesale market. Visser says model year 2012 trucks have lost about 37 percent of their value, and trucks of model year 2011 have lost about 31 percent.

Used truck prices poised to continue to fall until 2020, analyst says

Given the high truck build rates in 2014 and 2015, the market for 3- to 5-year-old tractors is set to be flooded in the coming ...

“These figures translate to an overall monthly loss of about 3 percent, which means the market has just about caught up to our earlier estimate of 3 to 5 per month,” he says. “Three percent is still better than the nearly 5 percent average monthly loss in the heaviest depreciation period of 2015, but trucks sold this time last year were bringing more than 30 percent more money than now.”

Based on the expected returning supply of 3-to 5-year-old trucks in the long term, Visser says he expects auction volume to continue to trend upward and pricing to trend downward.

The average sleeper tractor sold wholesale in October was 80 months old, had 563,349 miles and brought $30,863.

 

6 comments
MW33
MW33

If you think you are getting a deal on a 2008 or newer truck, wait until you have your first emission issue... Dealer in most cases will NOT be able to fix, but will throw thousands and thousands of dollars of new parts at it... Then a year down the road, most of that spent in the shop or down while you attempt to fix yourself you discover you are broke... 

But, by now, you hopefully have taken the time to have educated yourself on the emission systems, spent thousands of dollars in tools, computer applications and diagnostic tools specific to your truck... Only to discover you need an in frame from all of the internal damage caused by the soot trapped in your motor and the overheats that these motors are prone to. 

Having been this route with my truck, mileage will not matter on your motor in regards to rebuilding. If you look around, you will find many motors being rebuilt in that 300,000 mile range. That is due to the soot build up, and they all do it, SCR or not. It tears through your engine and systems doing some incredible damage. Oil changes should be increased, every 10,000 miles, oil and filters, change them. Try not to idle your truck, the DPF/DOC systems do not fair well with idling. 

EGR Tuneups at least once a year, Google the term. You need to pull all of the lines, anything that carries air, intake, etc. Clean soot out with carb cleaner, replace all sensors, replace doser when needed. SCR System, remove from vehicle and power wash out, inspect for leaks, do this annually. DPF and DOC filters need to be tested via computer, if failing replace. Don't waste your money on reman DPF/DOC filters, purchase new but shop around. They are not cheap. 

If purchasing one of these EPA mandated buckets of bolts, check the head gasket for leaks. Also, get on the ECM and look for overheats. If there have been any serious overheats, more than likely the head is bad and will need to be replaced. The EGR/SCR/DPF/DOC issues usually mask the bad head and or gasket. If you need a new head, replace with a new OEM, do not waste your money on a reman. If you are able to, drop the oil pan and inspect the lower end bearings. 

Then the brake system, the air compressors are prone to clogging with soot, pull the lines and inspect. Compressors are not cheap, some have rebuild kits like Cummins, others you have to purchase an entire new unit. Also, soot will find its way into your air tanks, something to think about and inspect.

If you are ridding yourself of the mandate, as many have done, be careful how you go about this. There are many a butcher out there, tread with caution, research. There are good guys that know what they are doing, and there are guys that will charge you through the bung hole and in the process destroy your motor. Seen it many times, I have a guy around the corner from me doing these hack jobs. Let's just say my truck is running fine, knock on wood. I have not seen that Check Engine Light in over two years. 

If you have to have one of these EPA mandated trucks, prepare yourself financially, gird your loins boys and girls... Cummins are the easiest to fix in regards to the EPA mandate, so keep that in mind. Honestly, I would not waste my money, find a good older used truck that has been taken care of and go that route, your wallet and wife will thank you. These new trucks may get great fuel milage, but when it is only operational a few days a quarter, what does great fuel mileage really matter? 

SugarBear1
SugarBear1

It sure is funny that the pictures in the beginning of this editorial has a bunch of volvo's what about the w900's and the 389's value?

mikemascow
mikemascow

That is because anything made 2008 or sooner is a PIECE OF SH!T, I mean, junk.


I purposely stick with 2007 or older models...much less troublesome, run better, less mtc, and NO DEF!!!

Gangster78
Gangster78

Hell they stay in the shop half the time for emissions problems that's about to put me out of business. Truck makers need to step up to the plate and correct this

MW33
MW33

@Gangster78 Go over here, Rawze.com, maybe you can find some help there, I did.