Eric Starks, president of FTR Associates, Nov. 8 said that although trucking is in a growth period, carriers need to keep an eye on the global economy and its potential impact on freight demand.

Starks spoke during a presentation at Commercial Carrier Journal’s Fall Symposium in Scottsdale, Ariz.

In the short term, Starks projects the economy to remain on a slow-growth track, but the long-term outlook poses some significant downside risks, including uncertainty in the European market, a potential slowdown in the Chinese economy and slow U.S. gross domestic product growth.

FTR anticipates an average GDP growth of 2.5 percent over the next six quarters. “We are less pessimistic than we were just several months ago, but there is still a lot of uncertainty in the market,” Starks said.

One positive indicator for the trucking industry is historically low inventory-to-sales ratios. “As the economy starts to heat up and manufacturers begin ordering more goods, we’re sitting in a good spot relative to the inventory situation,” Starks said.

While customer orders for Class 8 power units softened in the last few months, FTR is predicting orders to begin to rise. As peak shipping season hits, carriers are starting to place orders for next year, and Starks expects that to continue in November and December.