ATA economist Bob Costello said large truckload carrier turnover averaged 121 percent during 2004 and 136 percent in the fourth quarter, both record levels.
Expect plenty of freight in the coming years but no relief from costly fuel or the driver shortage, according to a top trucking economist.
Freight has slacked a little, “but when we get back to the fall freight season, it’s going to be very tight again,” said Bob Costello, chief economist for the American Trucking Associations. He addressed about 400 industry executives in May at the Randall Trucking Spring Symposium in Tuscaloosa, Ala. The symposium is sponsored by Randall Publishing, parent company of eTrucker.com, Overdrive, CCJ and Truckers News magazines.
Reports that U.S. manufacturing is dying because production is moving out of the country are misleading because they look only at jobs, Costello said. Technology gains allowed U.S. manufacturers to increase production by 60 percent during the 1990s, yet the manufacturing work force dropped 1 percent.
“U.S. manufacturers are going to continue to produce more – more to be hauled in trucks,” he said. “What they’re not going to do is create jobs.”
The Gross Domestic Product should continue growing at about 3.3 percent each year, Costello said – a steady rate that should deter the Federal Reserve from frequent interest rate changes. Combine those trends with expectations of low inflation and reduced federal spending, and GDP growth should be good for the next five years, he said.
For-hire truck tonnage grew 5.7 percent in 2004, the biggest increase since 1998, and for-hire fleets are proving to be more efficient than private fleets, Costello said. “They haul 52 percent of the tonnage with 40 percent of the trucks,” Costello said. “There’s a lot of opportunity there.”
