Freight markets have gained strength since last Fall, yet where owner-operator income lands for 2026 is going to depend on fuel economy.
That's at least part of the focus you can expect from Overdrive's coproducer of truck owners' Partners in Business self-help resource, business services firm ATBS, as it kicks off Spring next week with the first of its semi-annual trends updates for 2026. Every six months, the organization gathers data to track back through performance measures derived from tens of thousands of owner-operator clients, offering up insights on what they're seeing in the numbers.
The "Owner-operator trucking trends" conference call and online session is set for Tuesday, March 24, at 6 p.m. Eastern/3 Pacific. Registration is open for any truck owner-op, regardless of whether they're an ATBS client, via this link.
There's been at least some good news the last couple updates, even amid the long freight rates downswing: Fuel economy was measured on average approaching 7.5 mpg with the the mid-year 2025 session.
ATBS clients' fuel-economy average, with data through June of 2025.
[Related: Diesel soars past $5/gal. nationally, rates finally rise to respond]
And while revenues continued to fall in most months the first half of the year, miles and net income were growing, setting the stage for a 2026 comeback.
ATBS President Todd Amen said in September that "what most people are holding hope out for" was a swift reduction in "foreign driver capacity," with an uptick in English language proficiency enforcement then ongoing. "If the current administration shuts down foreign capacity like they did the Southern border," he assessed a good impact for rates could be the result.
Though Amen didn't specifically note it at the time, the federal rule effectively banning most non-citizen drivers from even holding a CDL held added potential. That rule went into full effect Monday this week, and most owner-operators in Overdrive's audience late last year echoed Amen's sentiment that the rates picture would improve were it allowed to go into effect.
We asked the question above of respondents to a 2025 Overdrive survey, with results published in December. Compare answers to the question by citizenship status of the operator by downloading results at this link.
At once, looking back on what some watchers have call the longest freight recession in history, Amen at the time pegged the start of the troubles to the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine and subsequent oil-market shock. "The downturn started with Russia invading Ukraine," he said, sending fuel prices soaring and prompting belt-tightening all around the United States and the world.
Though fleets and owners were then hopeful for a big event sparking a freight-market turnaround, the opposite has been more often the case in history, Amen said.
Diesel deja vu of late after the U.S. and Israel's war in Iran kicked off two weeks back will hold huge import for the year.
[Related: Trump's FMCSA effectively ends non-domiciled CDLs, starting today]
What to expect for ATBS's first 2026 update
Analysis of business and financial trends typically dominate the semi-annual presentation, centered squarely on owner-operators. This year, the firm notes that the depressed freight markets of the last several years finally appear to be turning, with a strong start to 2026.
As the diesel shock collides head-on with that momentum, tune in to assess 2025 trends and benchmark your own performance against peers' averages. Get answers to these pressing questions, according to ATBS:
- What do federal and state moves against "chameleon" operations and non-citizen CDL holders, among other increasing credentials enforcement, really mean?
- How are trends shaping up with respect to owner-ops' miles, rates, fuel and maintenance costs, and net income?
- Why do owner-operators choose any particular fleet to lease to, and why do they most often leave?
- Will recent gains in spot rates, particularly in flatbed since the beginning of the year, bring more truck owners to their own authority?
What a 2026 trucking recovery might look like will depend on hosts of factors, but using public and proprietary data ATBS hopes to help owner-ops lay a path forward with the session.
Register for the March 26 session via this link.
The last few updates have illustrated slow but steady income growth for owner-operators in most segments, as suggested above. Track back through the last one, held in September, via the video version below.
[Related: 'Foreign driver capacity' hit incoming? Fleets watch, as owner-op income back on a slow rise]
