Diesel price still expected to fall 20 cents through 2014, 2015

The Department of Energy has once again upwardly revised its forecast for 2014’s average diesel price, pushing it up another 2 cents to $3.83 — still a 9-cent drop from 2013’s average — in its Energy Information Administration’s Short Term Energy Outlook, published monthly.

The average price of diesel in 2015 is still projected to fall to $3.73, based on projected demand and supply of crude oil, per the Feb. 11-released STEO.

The EIA’s monthly forecasts are somewhat volatile and can be swayed by lots of factors.

This is the fourth month in a row the EIA has upwardly revised its 2014 projection. In November’s STEO, the EIA forecasted diesel would average $3.73 in 2014. Then in December, it revised that projection to $3.77, before bumping it up another 4 cents last month to $3.81.

2013’s average price dropped 5 cents from 2012 to $3.92.

The continued projection of diesel price declines stems from a potential growth in supply that will outpace growth for demand, per EIA.