Truckers know it all too well in some ways: Carrier vetting and standards setting is a new normal for brokers and shippers in selection.
A recent analysis of freight market data by Triumph Financial, the inaugural “Triumph Mile Marker” report, illustrated the shift from prioritizing simply available capacity to capacity that can be selected with confidence.
"For years, discussions about capacity centered on whether trucks and drivers existed," and little more, said Ben Volkwyn, a Triumph executive vice president and head of enterprise data and intelligence. "Increasingly, the question isn't whether capacity is available. It's whether capacity is trustworthy."
With legal and regulatory moves impacting trucking -- from English language proficiency and non-domiciled CDLs on the regulatory side to the Supreme Court opening brokers up to liability lawsuits -- shippers and brokers now have to be able to prove the carrier they're contracting to move freight is doing things the right way.
Triumph’s Volkwyn called it all a shift to “defensible capacity,” which he said “is essentially capacity that can be verified, it's insured, and then can be deployed with real confidence. ... The pool of capacity that brokers or shippers are actually willing to and able to work with has just become really, really selective. ...
"The issue is not just whether or not the truck exists, it's whether or not that truck can be deployed with confidence now.”
Rates data analysis in Triumph’s Mile Marker report in some ways tells that tale. First, the firm analyzed completed broker-to-carrier transactions to see what brokers actually paid carriers, what's changed in 2026 from recent history. Through August, all-in rates for all three primary equipment types were up significantly year-over-year -- van up 45.1%, reefer 43.8% and flatbed 48%.
The improvement's not confined to particular segments, suggesting to Volkwyn a "broad change in the cost of deployable capacity rather than any isolation in a specific equipment move or an equipment type,” he said.
Triumph looked at broker margins to determine what brokers are keeping from shippers' spend by equipment type. Triumph’s Broker Margin Index in August showed a 13.7% margin on van loads, 11% on reefer loads and 14.7% margin for flatbeds, all within roughly a percentage point of the same month a year ago, whether up or down.
“Each of these continue to improve month over month, but I'll be honest, the longer-term picture still shows some pressure" on margins, he said, particularly for vans and reefers.
[Related: SCOTUS shocker: High court says brokers are accountable for hiring unsafe carriers]
How to get ‘defensible’ as a carrier, and market signals to watch for continued better leverage
With rates at a premium and margins lagging historical norms, “I think we're getting to the point where brokers and shippers are very selective in the way that they're thinking about their freight,” Volkwyn said.
For carriers, the implied lesson's been aired in past Overdrive reporting: "Now is the time to publicly and credibly make a case for yourself as a solid, well-managed operation," however a carrier can. Doug Marcello, trucking and commercial transportation attorney at law firm Saxton & Stump, urged carriers of any size to take a proactive approach, build credentials with a strong safety record, insurance, references, proving they're defensible.
Volkwyn put it this way: "Carriers that can demonstrate strong safety, compliance, insurance, operating history, all these types of verifiable business practices, they're the ones that are seeing a larger share of that freight come through on their side.”
Triumph found brokers of different sizes finding success in different ways, larger brokers seeing more freight volume growth, smaller brokers more growth in margins.
“There's definitely not one broker market right now,” Volkwyn added. “Different broker models are succeeding in different ways. And I think directionally for carriers to participate in quality, they just need to make sure they're verifiable and part of that usable category.”
[Related: Brokers' new carrier-selection strategy after $604M C.H. Robinson verdict]
Before COVID, trucking cycles typically self-corrected within a year or two as supply and demand shifted, Triumph noted in the report. Now, however, the market and recovery “is also being shaped by policy, enforcement, and compliance requirements, which will extend the cycle and, most certainly, alter the pace of normalization.”
With the Democratic party poised to take control of Congress in the new year, new priorities are sure to emerge on those fronts. Volkwyn was speaking before the election this week, yet ID'd metrics to keep an eye on over the next six months to discern opportunity -- and not just whether rates stay up. Note how fast they change, and whether freight volume starts to return or continues at similar levels. Consumer, construction demand, too.
Freight "rates will tell us about the usable capacity costs,” he added, while freight "volumes will tell us about the freight demand. Is it strengthening? Is it softening? Across margin and total margin dollars, that will tell us who's really capturing the different economics."
Whichever direction the freight market goes, Volkwyn expects it to take some time as shippers, brokers and carriers alike adjust to the new normal of defensible capacity.
Hear more from Volkwyn about the Triumph Mile Marker report in this recent installment of Overdrive sister publication CCJ’s 10-44 video series:
[Related: Diesel prices holding above $6/gal. nationwide as rates stagnate]
