"No better time to buy a truck than now. ... Everything will add to the cost relative to now." --Paccar Senior Powertrain Planning Director Carl Hergart on engine makers' new paths to EPA 2027 compliance as proposed
Carl Hergart was making a bit of a joke when he said those words this week during an FTR Transportation Intelligence conference panel discussion about what truck buyers can expect in 2027. "That's my sales pitch," he added from the FTR stage, with a bit of a grin.
Yet generally, he's correct about what manufacturers will be able to offer customers come January, assuming the Environmental Protection Agency's proposed modifications to 2027 NOx emissions are adopted as proposed back in July.
Excepting limited ability to sell 2026-spec engines at levels FTR Senior Commercial Vehicles Analyst Dan Moyer described as more or less "normal engine carryover," OEMs have these paths to compliant engines in the proposed rule, all adding more cost:
- Trucks that meet the EPA 2027 NOx standard, with new emissions equipment likely adding $8K-$12K to costs.
- Engines falling somewhat short of meeting the full NOX standard, yet certified with credits delivered to makers from past early compliance: also adding $8K-$12K OEM upcharge.
- Engines certified with paid non-compliance penalties (NCP engines): Likely adding $6K-$7K in direct pass-through of OEM fees to buyers.
Moyer expected upcharges to be on the "large majority of engines next year," he said.
Moyer shared this slide during his presentation that showed categories of new engines for 2027 allowed for in the EPA rule proposal. Estimated upcharges are highlighted.
Current emissions technology is likely to be available, in other words, depending on the manufacturer, but you're also likely to pay for it at levels similar to what the next-gen engines are going to add to costs.
[Related: Detroit to stay the course with 2027 engines, owner-ops worry over EPA changes]
Cummins indicated intent to offer current-emissions engines into the new year, while Detroit/Daimler have said they'd proceed straight to full rollout. And there's a bit of a problem with Hergart's "buy now" pitch, of course, given the late hour in this year's order cycle.
Year "2026 is probably sold out, and Q1 likely getting close," Moyer said, for the "surcharge-free engines, anyway."
Good thing Kevin Otto of Otto Transfer got his own mini-prebuy in already. The specialized open-deck small fleet, all engines with Detroit power operating from a Minnesota home base, ordered well more than usual this year.
"We bought four for this year," Otto said. The 16-unit fleet didn't necessarily "need them, but I remember 2010." It's a reference to the addition to selective catalytic reduction (SCR) with diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) dosing that year.
Maintenance issues were legion for the Otto fleet at the time, running Volvos back then. "It was horrid," Otto said. "I remember losing trucks in Indianapolis and Denver and just leaving them because they didn't have parts."
Memories like that die hard, it's sure. In Overdrive's 2024 report detailing survey responses of owner-operators looking ahead to the 2027 EPA emissions regs, and back on prior generations, truck owners rates that first-generation SCR system the absolute worst for reliability this century.
[Related: 'Not gonna be a guinea pig': Owner-ops wary of maintenance unknown with EPA 2027 regs]
With D13 power today, small fleet owner Otto feels issues of such severity are things of the past with the current emissions spec. "We really like what we've got," he said, and having more of it he hopes will get him through any tough patch for new-generation equipment, expected to add new heaters and other pieces in exhaust stream.
Pre-buy dynamics are likely in part driving a big uptick in order activity for the 2026 season. Year over year, Moyer pointed out, 2026 order volumes have tracked "120% over the prior year." He called it a "modest EPA pre-buy" generally speaking.
Production backlogs are elevated, too, up "139% year over year," he said. OEMs have "slotted more production in Q3 and Q4 than we are forecasting."
His takeaway, though, is 2026 calendar year production is sold out. Orders this month or next month will be for production next year. Dealer inventory is available, but fairly limited, too, with better buyer confidence about freight improvement this year and units moving from lots.
"Inventory won’t spike this year" anywhere near the high a year ago, Moyer added, noting the 2025 inventory high shown in the chart:
With the comment period closed for EPA's 2027-change proposal to strip out extended warranty requirements and offer the engine-compliance flexibilities described, keep tuned for final word from the agency. A lot of the forecasting/estimating here depends ultimately on where the agency lands.
[Related: EPA proposes to end DEF derates, roll back warranty regs]
