After taking a 10-year hiatus from trucking, I returned to the road in 2015. At that time, I was astonished by some of the significant changes I observed compared to when I'd left the road in 2005. These changes often left me shaking my head, and at times even to this day I find myself longing for the proverbial “good old days” -- the camaraderie among fellow drivers, the truckers' counter where the old-timers gathered for dinner and coffee to share their stories, their adventures.
Logbook regulations had changed with the 14-hour rule when I returned, making quick-turnaround stops the norm, and the mandated electronic logging device loomed on the horizon. Plenty of my fellow drivers, though, said it would never happen.
Other changes were intriguing, some annoying to outright worrisome. There was discussion about companies offering camera-monitor alternatives to truck mirrors, CD players had more or less disappeared, and satellite radio became the primary source of entertainment. I can recall downloading all my CDs onto my laptop and transferring files to a jump drive just to listen to music I had already purchased. The pace of change has only accelerated -- another ten years and most music is now streamed, of course, and few among us purchase full albums; we tend to buy the songs we want or pay a monthly subscription to access anything and everything we desire.
After I re-joined my brothers and sisters on the road, we also heard about automated trucks. At the time, most drivers said it would never really happen, just as so many had said about electronic logging devices. “Oh, we’ll never see ELDs,” they said, though I had long been skeptical on that score. Skeptical views around fully driverless trucks at the time were met with investor and inventor insistence they would eventually be a reality. Back then, most suggested it was likely two or three decades away. Yet as with my own prediction about ELDs, personally I wasn’t convinced we were as far out as many claimed.
Be realistic: one of the most significant expenses for a trucking company is the combination of the employed driver’s pay, taxes and insurance.
We hear about automated trucks delivering beer, delivering mail and other commodities, but not to worry, skeptics say -- the driver will never be replaced; there is a safety driver in the truck. While that has been true for most such runs, on May 1 Aurora Innovations announced operation of what they called commercial driverless trucks on a 200-mile stretch of I-45 in Texas. The trucks are piloted by the company’s “Aurora Driver” system, which uses sensors and cameras integrated with radar and other technology to navigate the roadway without a human driver’s intervention.
Bolstering the driverless skeptics' views, less than two weeks after the announcement, Paccar requested Aurora put in-cab observers back in the driver’s seat as a standby. Yet if you think the initiative is over, know that the company plans to expand its commercial offering on lanes to El Paso, Texas, and Phoenix. All of this makes the rhetoric around the driver shortage even more concerning.
[Related: When will owner-operators have to compete with truly 'driverless' trucks?]
At the technology-focused VivaTech 2024 conference in Paris, Elon Musk described the future of jobs as a hobby -- something people will pursue only if they wish to, because robots will be able to handle tasks typically done by humans. He introduced a term that I’m sure we will hear more often in the future, something he posed as necessary for the coming AI-dominated work reality: universal high income, which should not be confused with the universal basic income political candidates like Andrew Yang campaigned on in the past. Musk has been quite vocal about population growth, and how it will not keep pace with workforce needs. Automated systems will fill labor shortages, he suggests.
I've never been a conspiracy nut, but the dangers of work automation and AI in general are concerning. Bias in automated systems of varying natures might give rise to discrimination, security threats posed by cyber-terrorists could endanger human life. If AI’s doing all the work, furthermore, where does that leave us in the societal mix?
We may never see a “Terminator”-type scenario where machines take over, but Musk's statements make me more worried than I could ever be about that prospect. Universal high income would seem to require government to compensate individuals for not working, in essence. To some, that may sound like living the dream, yet in my view this would signal a death-knell for creativity and innovation, to say nothing of where the money comes from. Might such a scenario signal the very end of capitalism as we know it?
Capitalism encourages innovation, promotes economic growth, and most importantly in my view, supports individual freedom. If we as a society must depend on government for income, we might eventually rely on government for everything. The continuing push for innovation in automation could easily turn against us, undermining our society. Our esteemed leaders might do well to view increasing automation that would eliminate our work not just as a way for employers and companies to save money, but as a threat. In my view, it’s one that could devastate our economy, our freedom, and ultimately our democratic society. What's your view?
[Related: Safety, competition: Your view of driverless trucks?]
