A global shortage of engine oil components looms after an Iranian missile struck one of the world's largest sources of base oils and the Strait of Hormuz remains mostly closed to traffic.
The result, according to the Independent Lubricants Manufacturers Association, is a "global base oil supply crisis" that has already tripled fuel oil prices in Asian markets, will lead to tighter supplies, and may not lift until mid-2027 at the earliest.
[Related: Trump wants to drop the federal fuel tax. How could it impact trucking?]
Base oils are a petroleum product that make up about 75% of engine oils, with the rest being different additives.
A memo circulating on social media described as an Autozone internal communication had the following stark warning:
"Due to the unfolding situation in the Middle East, we’re facing the largest supply shortage of lubricating fluids in the modern history of America. Realistic, middle-of-the-road estimates are for our average available supply in this product category to drop by 40%.”
The military action in the Persian Gulf and Shell's Pearl GTL refinery in Qatar, "one of the world’s largest sources of lubricant base oil," getting hit by Iranian fire, combine to create a genuine capacity crunch.
But will trucking be impacted?
ILMA communications director Caitlin Jacobs said that for the most part, diesel engine oil shouldn't be impacted, but passenger cars' oils will.
The American Petroleum Institute sorts oil into five groups, Jacobs explained, with Group I the least refined all the way up to Group V, which includes highly processed synthetic oils.
Diesel engine oils mostly come from lesser-refined Group II base oils, which Jacobs said would likely not be as impacted.
Diesel engine oils are "not going to be highly impacted," she said. Instead, thinner oils like 0-20W or 0-8W, commonly used in newer gas vehicles, would bear the brunt.
"There's not a lot of diesels that use those really thin oils," she said. "The biggest market impact is definitely in passenger cars."
Nate Chenenko, head of global benchmarking at energy consultant firm Ducker Carlisle, agreed with Jacobs that conventional diesel oils would remain in supply, but said more refined, synthetic mixes could see big price hikes.
That said, the crisis could profoundly impact passenger cars.
Group III oil "supply is short, so prices go up, and we're already seeing that," said Jacobs.
Auto OEMs have put out bulletins permitting the use of heavier oils, and oil formulators have been given license to change things up.
Formulators "can't just swap things out without losing their license, from the API, said Jacobs. As such, the API has granted "emergency provisional licensing," something that "gives formulators the flexibility to change formulation right now temporarily and to explain how it meets the specifications" to ensure buyers are still getting a high quality oil.
The emergency licensing process is "all very formal and documented," she said, so "consumers definitely can still be assured" of quality, but oils "just might be more expensive" as producers pay more for raw materials.
Store shelves have yet to really go empty so far, but suppliers may be forced to buy more expensive oil groups for lack of preferred supply, she said.
According to an ILMA memo, record high diesel prices have also pulled some motor oils off the market.
"Normally, blenders move to Group II for many products when Group III is short. But with diesel margins at 40-year highs, refiners" are focusing on turning out fuel rather than engine oils a ILMA memo read. "For the first time on record, Group II is trading at a discount to diesel -- pulling it out of the market."
For now, truckers, bear in mind that as commodity prices spike, they become a target for cargo theft. Maybe load up on a few gallons for your passenger cars, and look into oil sampling, analysis and extending drain intervals if things get worse.
[Related: Pull off extended oil drains with routine analysis]
